tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57367489538686998462024-03-19T05:35:55.493-04:00Exploring the Political Spectrumschiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.comBlogger863125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-89339718575169277622010-06-09T09:15:00.000-04:002010-06-09T09:20:32.075-04:00California Gubernatorial Primary ResultsMeg Whitman, former CEO of eBay, won yesterday's Republican primary for governor of California. Whitman, 53, got 64% of the vote, to 26% for Steve Poizner, the state's insurance commissioner. As is the case with her ticket-mate, Carly Fiorina, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in California, this is Whitman's first run for public office.<br /><br />Her general election opponent will be state Attorney General Jerry Brown, a former governor. Brown, 72, got 84% of the Democratic primary vote, against several minor candidates.<br /><br />According to <em>Real Clear Politics</em>, <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/ca/california_governor_whitman_vs_brown-1113.html">polls</a> show Brown ahead of Whitman by an average of 6.2%.<br /><br />I wrote about the background of this race, <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/11/old-brown-not-newsom.html">here</a> and <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/11/miscellany.html">here</a>.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-65498025856343904802010-06-09T09:00:00.000-04:002010-06-09T09:02:19.964-04:00California Senate Primary ResultsTwo female former CEOs of major corporations won the major Republican primaries in California yesterday.<br /><br />In the primary for U.S. Senate, Carly Fiorina, who formerly headed up Hewlett-Packard, easily won the Republican primary. She won 54% of the vote, while her closest challenger, former Congressman Tom Campbell, got only 24%. Fiorina, 55, is making her first run for public office. Those of us who are alumni of a certain <a href="http://www.carleton.edu/">college</a> will note that "Carly" is short for "Carleton" (with the "e"; that makes all the difference.)<br /><br />In the Democratic primary, Senator <a href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=B000711">Barbara Boxer</a> saw off token opposition, winning with 80% of the vote. Boxer, 69, has held the seat since 1993, having previously served in the U.S. House for 10 years.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/california_senate_race.html">Polls</a> reported by <em>Real Clear Politics</em> show Boxer with a fair-to-middling lead over Fiorina.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-31418249261141126282010-06-02T11:36:00.000-04:002010-06-02T11:41:05.576-04:00Resignations and HistoryWhen did World War II end?<br /><br />Of course, the history books tell us that May 8, 1945, was Victory in Europe (VE) Day. However, the war in Asia was still going on, and the end of the fighting can be dated from either August 15 of that year, when the Japanese announced their intent to surrender, or September 2, when the formal surrender ceremony was held.<br /><br />Some would argue that the War didn't really end until German reunification, in 1990. I suppose, by the same token, an argument can be made that the true end of the War awaits a similar reunification on the Korean Peninsula. But, most would say that, by now, the War has been over for many years.<br /><br />The War is a thing of the past, but its effects are still being felt in world politics. Two resignations of national leaders this week are both tied to World War II-related issues.<br /><br />On Monday, the German head of state, President Horst Koehler, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/01/world/europe/01germany.html?scp=1&sq=kohler&st=cse">announced</a> his immediate resignation. He had been strongly criticized for saying that:<br /><br /><blockquote>A country of our size, with its focus on exports and thus reliance on foreign trade, must be aware that military deployments are necessary in an emergency to protect our interests, for example, when it comes to trade routes, for example, when it comes to preventing regional instabilities that could negatively influence our trade, jobs and incomes.</blockquote><br /><br />Everyone knows that protecting a country's economic interests is one of the primary reasons for maintaining armed forces. Politicians will softpedal that to some degree, preferring to emphasize, for example, the protection of human rights, as in the Kosovo War of 1999.<br /><br />But, in most countries, it wouldn't be considered a scandal, if the head of state were to acknowledge the economic motive. Germany, however, is not most countries. Memories of German aggression in World War II make its own people, and those of other countries, sensitive about any hint of a renewal of an aggressive German foreign policy.<br /><br />The Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany, but now governing the entire country) became a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1955. Under NATO's aegis, Germany has fought in places such as Kosovo and Afghanistan. Those wars have been clearly defensive in nature, and therefore are not seen to violate the taboo about Germany using military force to further its national interests.<br /><br />It was in the context of the war in Afghanistan that Koehler made his remarks. Because that statement edged too close to taboo territory, he had to go.<br /><br />The following day, in Japan, that country's head of government, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/02/world/asia/02japan.html?ref=asia">announced</a> his resignation, to be effective when his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has chosen a successor.<br /><br />The main issue in Hatoyama's case is also an outgrowth of World War II. The U.S. retained control of some Japanese islands, including Okinawa, long after Japan's main islands again became self-governing. Finally, in 1972, those islands were returned to Japanese control. However, the U.S. has continued to maintain military bases on Japanese territory. Over the years, that American presence has become increasingly controversial with the Okinawan population.<br /><br />As I described in <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/08/japan-7-change.html">this</a> and other posts, the DPJ's victory in last year's general election was seen at the time as a major turning point in Japanese politics. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had maintained an almost-continuous hold on power for more than half a century, was finally booted out. Hatoyama and his party were to be the wave of the future. And one of their main <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/10/shifting-currents-in-asia.html">policy changes</a> was to be a recalibration of Japan's military alliance with the U.S.<br /><br />Hatoyama recently <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/24/world/asia/24japan.html">reneged</a> on a campaign promise to end the American military presence on Okinawa. Strategic concerns regarding China and North Korea militated against a weakening of the American alliance at this time. But, for residents of that island, the most important consideration was that it be "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY). In all parts of the world, NIMBY syndrome puts personal considerations ahead of national and international interests. As was the case with Germany's Koehler, Hatoyama mishandled a post-World War II issue, so he, too, had to go.<br /><br />An <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Germans">episode</a> of the 1970s British TV series <em>Fawlty Towers</em> involved innkeeper Basil Fawlty (played by John Cleese) playing host to a group of German tourists. The catch-phrase of that show was "don't mention the War." Even when German and Japanese leaders don't specifically mention the War, they still need to be careful what they say and do, regarding the consequences of World War II.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-25980475261320306632010-05-19T13:45:00.000-04:002010-05-19T13:49:59.422-04:00Oregon Primary ResultsNo surprises in yesterday's Oregon primary.<br /><br />Senator Ron Wyden was easily renominated in the <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-oregon-democratic-primary.html">Democratic primary</a>, receiving 91% of the vote. His Republican opponent will be Jim Huffman, a law professor, who got 42%, putting him well ahead of his opponents in a crowded <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-oregon-republican-primary.html">Republican primary</a> contest.<br /><br />Apparently there is no poll more recent that a <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/or/oregon_senate_huffman_vs_wyden-1207.html">Rasmussen poll</a> in February, with Wyden leading Huffman by 14 points.<br /><br />The gubernatorial election will be between Democratic former Governor John Kitzhaber and Republican Chris Dudley. Kitzhaber trounced former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, 66% to 30%, in the <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/governor-oregon-democratic-primary.html">Democratic primary</a>. Dudley got 40% in the <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/governor-oregon-republican-primary.html">Republican primary</a>, to 32% for runner-up Allen Alley.<br /><br />The most recent <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/or/oregon_governor_dudley_vs_kitzhaber-1088.html">poll</a> reported by <em>Real Clear Politics</em> shows Kitzhaber and Dudley tied.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-31956578438319754072010-05-19T10:33:00.000-04:002010-05-19T10:39:00.394-04:00Arkansas Primary ResultsSenator Blanche Lincoln, Democrat of Arkansas, fell short of renomination in yesterday's first round of voting in her party's <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-arkansas-democratic-primary.html">primary</a>. Lincoln led the field with 45% but, because she failed to reach 50%, there will be runoff between the senator and the number-two candidate, Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, on June 8. Halter received 43% of the vote.<br /><br />The Republicans, on the other hand, do have a nominee. Congressman John Boozman easily won the G.O.P. <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-arkansas-republican-primary.html">primary</a>, with 53%. The runner-up, Jim Holt, a former state senator, got only 17%.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/arkansas_senate_race.html">Polls</a> reported by <em>Real Clear Politics</em> show Boozman ahead of both potential Democratic candidates, by almost identical margins, over 19%.<br /><br />The <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/senate-forecast-update-little-chance-of.html"><em>538</em> blog</a> ranks this Senate seat as the second most likely Democratic seat to go Republican (after North Dakota).schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-29368185463755671352010-05-19T10:10:00.000-04:002010-05-19T10:15:58.410-04:00Kentucky Primary ResultsRand Paul, a physician making his first run for public office, won yesterday's Republican U.S. Senate <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-kentucky-republican-primary.html">primary</a> in Kentucky. Paul received 59% of the vote, while his main opponent, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, got 35%.<br /><br />The result is considered a victory for Tea Party upstarts against the Republican establishment. Grayson had been endorsed by senior Republicans, including the state's senior senator, Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader.<br /><br />Rand Paul's father, Congressman Ron Paul, twice ran for president on a libertarian platform.<br /><br />In a very close <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-kentucky-democratic-primary.html">Democratic primary</a>, Attorney General Jack Conway defeated Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo, by 44% to 43%.<br /><br />Paul holds a narrow lead over Conway, according to <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_paul_vs_conway-1148.html">polls</a> reported by <em>Real Clear Politics</em>.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-1971675602076577812010-05-19T09:40:00.000-04:002010-05-19T09:45:21.258-04:00Pennsylvania Primary ResultsWhen Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/04/arlen-spectrum.html">switched</a> from Republican to Democrat last year, he made no secret of the fact that his motive was to give himself an opportunity to win a sixth term in the Senate. Yesterday, his strategy backfired.<br /><br />Congressman Joe Sestak <a href="http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_top_left_story/20100519_Sestak_ousts_Specter_in_Democratic_primary.html#axzz0oNduRXeg">defeated</a> Specter in yesterday's <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-pennsylvania-democratic-primary.html">Democratic primary</a> for the U.S. Senate seat Specter has held since 1981. Sestak's margin of victory was 54% to 46%.<br /><br />The Republican primary was, as expected, won by former Congressman Pat Toomey. I mistakenly stated <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-pennsylvania-republican-primary.html">here</a> that Toomey was unopposed. It's a sign of how ineffectual the campaign of his primary opponent, Peg Luksik, was, that I, a registered Republican Pennsylvania voter, who therefore received several mailings and robo-calls from Republican candidates, was not aware of her candidacy. Luksik, a perennial candidate who has never won an election, garnered only 21% of the Republican vote.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_sestak_vs_toomey-1059.html">Polls</a> reported by <em>Real Clear Politics</em> show Toomey slightly ahead of Sestak.<br /><br />Allegheny County Executive Don Onorato won Pennsylvania's Democratic primary for governor. That was <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/governor-pennsylvania-democratic.html">predicted</a> by the pre-election polls. Onorato won with 44% in a multi-candidate race. His closest challenger was Jack Wagner, the state's auditor general, who got 25%.<br /><br />As expected, Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett easily won the <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/governor-pennsylvania-republican.html">Republican gubernatorial primary</a>. Corbett got 72%, to 28% for Sam Rohrer, a state legislator.<br /><br />Corbett has a comfortable lead over Onorato, according to <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/pa/pennsylvania_governor_corbett_vs_onorato-1333.html">polls</a> reported by <em>Real Clear Politics</em>.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-51829108383722499592010-05-18T16:20:00.000-04:002010-05-18T16:23:44.343-04:00Diversity: Both Harvard and YaleAs I noted <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/where-have-all-protestants-gone.html">here</a>, if Elena Kagan's Supreme Court nomination is confirmed, we poor oppressed Protestants will be shut out of the institution that we used to overwhelmingly dominate.<br /><br />Just as Kagan's presence on the Court would mean that only two religions would be represented (Roman Catholicism and Judaism), it would also be true that only two law schools (Harvard and Yale) would have produced almost all of the nine justices.<br /><br />The one exception, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who received her law degree from Columbia, had earlier attended Harvard Law School. So it is true, as noted in this National Public Radio <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=126802460">report</a>, that all of the nine (after a Kagan confirmation) would have been students at either Harvard Law or Yale Law.<br /><br />NPR mentions certain highly-rated law schools further west, that have, up until recently, been represented on the Court. John Paul Stevens, whose retirement led to Kagan's appointment, is an alumnus of Northwestern Law School. Two recently-departed justices, the late William Rehnquist and Sandra Day O'Connor, went to law school at Stanford.<br /><br />But, aside from that, there have been some justices in recent decades who attended law schools that did not sit particularly high in the ratings. Chief Justice Warren Burger got his law degree from what was then called St. Paul College of Law, later renamed William Mitchell College of Law. Thurgood Marshall graduated from Howard University Law School, and Hugo Black from the University of Alabama Law School.<br /><br />During the first two years of the Burger Court, the Harvard/Yale group was in the minority (William Brennan and Harry Blackmun from Harvard, and Potter Stewart and Byron White from Yale). But William O. Douglas, a Columbia Law alumnus, made for an overall Ivy League majority.<br /><br />Is there any correlation between the party of the president who nominated a justice, and which law school that justice attended? No. Including Kagan, and counting Ginsburg with the Harvard bunch, the five Republican appointees include three from Harvard and two from Yale. The four Democratic appointees include three from Harvard and one from Yale.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-77124937154158836572010-05-17T16:50:00.000-04:002010-05-17T16:55:33.837-04:00Governor -- Oregon -- Republican PrimaryChris Dudley, an investment manager, and former professional basketball player, is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for governor of Oregon in tomorrow's primary election, according to this <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2010/05/11/7-republicans-battle-for-attention-in-oregon-senate-primary/">poll</a>.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.chrisdudley.com/about/">Dudley</a>, 45, <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dudlech02.html">played</a> in the National Basketball Association from 1987 to 2003. He was with the Portland Trail Blazers for five seasons is two different stints, the last of which ended in 2003. This is his first run for public office.<br /><br />His main primary opponent is <a href="http://www.allenalley.com/about-allen-alley.html">Allen Alley</a>, a 55-year-old businessman. He was the unsuccessful Republican candidate for state treasurer in 2008. Alley briefly served on the staff of outgoing Governor Ted Kulongoski.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-59124284671598777552010-05-17T16:35:00.000-04:002010-05-17T16:39:04.714-04:00Governor -- Oregon -- Democratic PrimaryGovernor Ted Kulongoski, Democrat of Oregon, is barred by a term limit from running in tomorrow's primary election.<br /><br />According to this <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2010/05/11/7-republicans-battle-for-attention-in-oregon-senate-primary/">poll</a>, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination is former Governor <a href="http://www.johnkitzhaber.com/about/">John Kitzhaber</a>, 63. He was <a href="http://arcweb.sos.state.or.us/governors/Kitzhaber/bio.htm">governor</a> from 1995 to 2003, after having served in the state legislature for 14 years, including eight years as president of the Senate. Kitzhaber, a physician, has headed up health-related not-for-profit organizations since the end of his first stint as governor.<br /><br />His main opponent is <a href="http://www.bradbury2010.com/">Bill Bradbury</a>, a former Oregon secretary of state. He held that office from 1999 to 2009. Bradbury was in the state legislature from 1981 to 1995 and, for the last two years of that period, was Kitzhaber's successor as president of the Senate. He also worked in television news.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-10604261370476671462010-05-17T15:33:00.000-04:002010-05-17T15:36:58.374-04:00Senate -- Oregon -- Republican PrimaryOregon will hold a primary election tomorrow. There are five candidates for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, none of whom have been elected to public office prior to this race. The Republican primary winner will face incumbent Democratic Senator <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-oregon-democratic-primary.html">Ron Wyden</a> in November.<br /><br />According to the poll reported <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2010/05/11/7-republicans-battle-for-attention-in-oregon-senate-primary/">here</a>, the leader is <a href="http://www.jimhuffmanforsenate.com/about.html">Jim Huffman</a>, a professor at Lewis & Clark Law School. Other candidates include:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.commonsensetom.com/About_Tom.html">Tom Stutzman</a>, a real estate broker.<br /><br /><a href="http://robinparker4senate.webs.com/aboutrobin.htm">Robin Parker</a>, a logistics analyst.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.dinkelforsenate.com/index.php/about-shane/">Shane Dinkel</a>, an army officer.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.lorenforsenate.com/">Loren Later</a>, a businessman.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-24272604187561916332010-05-17T15:10:00.000-04:002010-05-17T15:12:39.018-04:00Senate -- Oregon -- Democratic PrimarySenator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, will seek his party's nomination for a third full term in the U.S. Senate, in tomorrow's primary election. He faces only token opposition from within his party.<br /><br /><a href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=W000779">Wyden</a>, 61, won a special election in 1996, to replace Bob Packwood, who had resigned his Senate seat in the wake of a scandal involving sexual harassment and related charges. Wyden was subsequently reelected to two full terms. Before that, he had served in the U.S. House since 1981.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-75162022274055235582010-05-17T14:40:00.000-04:002010-05-17T14:42:57.565-04:00Governor -- Pennsylvania -- Republican PrimaryPennsylvania's Attorney General Tom Corbett remains the front-runner in tomorrow's Republican primary for governor.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/theoffice.aspx?id=42">Corbett</a> has been attorney general since 2005. Also, he was appointed to that office on an interim basis in 1995, after Attorney General Ernie Preate pleaded guilty to mail fraud. Corbett filled out the remainder of that term, until 1997. Aside from that, he has worked in private practice, and as a federal prosecutor.<br /><br />His primary opponent is state Representative <a href="http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/home/member_information/house_bio.cfm?id=73">Sam Rohrer</a>, who has represented a district near Philadelphia since 1993.<br /><br />I have received robo-calls from Rohrer's campaign over the last couple of days, that emphasize that he is the "conservative" Republican candidate. Corbett apparently accepts that notion, and embraces the moderate label, because he reprints this <a href="http://www.tomcorbettforgovernor.com/news/philadelphia-inquirer-endorsement-editorial-republicans-best-choice">endorsement</a> from <em>The Philadelphia Inquirer</em>, a newspaper with a left-wing editorial page, on his campaign website.<br /><br />Pennsylvania has a history of electing moderate Republicans. Rick Santorum, who represented the state in the U.S. Senate from 1995 to 2007, is the most obvious exception.<br /><br />Here is a <a href="http://articles.mcall.com/2010-05-13/news/all-mc-pa-elex-gube.7272109may13_1_democrat-dan-onorato-quinnipiac-poll-marshall-poll">report</a> from <em>The Morning Call</em>, an Allentown newspaper, on polls showing Corbett well ahead of Rohrer.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-91335673458065864142010-05-17T14:05:00.000-04:002010-05-17T14:08:56.175-04:00Governor -- Pennsylvania -- Democratic PrimaryTomorrow is primary election day here in Pennsylvania, and the Democratic incumbent Governor Ed Rendell can't run for a third term, because of a term limit in the state constitution.<br /><br />Several Democrats are vying for a chance to succeed Rendell. I described them in this earlier <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/01/democrats-for-pennsylvania-governor.html">post</a>.<br /><br />It took a while for a front-runner to emerge but, by now, Don Onorato, county executive of Allegheny County (which includes Pittsburgh), has established a big lead in the <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/pa/pennsylvania_governor_democratic_primary-1237.html">polls</a>.<br /><br />Pennsylvania has a long-established pattern of switching back and forth between Democratic governors and Republican governors, at eight-year intervals. If that pattern holds, we will elect a Republican this year. Polls indicate that Republicans will make gains throughout the U.S. next November, which only reinforces that expectation.<br /><br />But there is another pattern of alternation, between governors from the eastern and western parts of Pennsylvania. Rendell is a Philadelphian, so, this year, it is the westerners' turn. Is that why his party seems to be preferring Onorato over his primary opponents, some of whom are from the Philadelphia area?schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-71452582580436528282010-05-16T16:45:00.000-04:002010-05-16T16:47:21.104-04:00Senate -- Pennsylvania -- Republican PrimaryFormer Congressman Pat Toomey is unopposed in Tuesday's Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, here in Pennsylvania.<br /><br /><a href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=T000461">Toomey</a>, 48, represented Pennsylvania in the U.S. House from 1999 to 2005. In 2004, he unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. Toomey lost a close primary contest against Senator Arlen Specter, who <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-pennsylvania-democratic-primary.html">might be Toomey's Democratic opponent</a> this time.<br /><br />In the meantime, Toomey was president of the <a href="http://www.clubforgrowth.org/">Club for Growth</a>, whose PAC had provided much of the financing for his primary run against Specter.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-54846042537625940352010-05-16T16:30:00.000-04:002010-05-16T16:35:04.416-04:00Senate -- Pennsylvania -- Democratic PrimaryMy home state of Pennsylvania will hold a primary election on Tuesday. Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter, who <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/04/arlen-spectrum.html">switched to the Democratic Party</a> last year, faces a tough primary contest in his new party.<br /><br /><a href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=S000709">Specter</a>, 80, was first elected to the Senate, as a Republican, in 1980. He became a Republican in 1965, when he won that party's nomination for Philadelphia district attorney, an office he went on to hold for eight years. Specter chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee in the 2005-6 Congress.<br /><br />Specter's opponent is Congressman <a href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=S001169">Joe Sestak</a>, 58. Sestak was a career Navy man until 2005. Then, in 2006, he defeated longtime Republican Congressman Curt Weldon, as part of the Democratic midterm landslide. Sestak was reelected in 2008.<br /><br />Specter had a large lead in early polls, but it's now a much tighter race. <em>Real Clear Politics</em> reports that <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-1050.html">polls</a> now show Sestak with a slight lead.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-69391638781560878942010-05-16T15:45:00.000-04:002010-05-16T15:50:33.147-04:00Senate -- Kentucky -- Democratic PrimaryTwo statewide office-holders are the leading candidates in Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary in Kentucky:<br /><br />Attorney General <a href="http://ag.ky.gov/bio/">Jack Conway</a>, 40. Before becoming attorney general, in 2008, he divided his career between private practice and other state government work. Conway unsuccessfully sought a U.S. House seat in 2002.<br /><br />Lieutenant Governor <a href="http://ltgovernor.ky.gov/about/">Daniel Mongiardo</a>, 49. He served in the state Senate from 2001 to 2007. In 2004, he lost to Republican Senator Jim Bunning, in the previous general election for the U.S. Senate seat for which he is running this year. Mongiardo became lieutenant governor in 2007. He is a physician.<br /><br /><em>Real Clear Politics</em> reports several <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_democratic_primary-1152.html">polls</a>, which average out to a five-percentage-point lead for Mongiardo.<br /><br />I described the Republican primary <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-kentucky-republican-primary.html">here</a>.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-86196135836891119292010-05-16T15:20:00.000-04:002010-05-16T15:26:37.782-04:00Senate -- Kentucky -- Republican PrimaryTuesday, May 18, is primary election day in Kentucky. Republican incumbent Senator Jim Bunning is not seeking reelection after having spent 12 years in each of the houses of Congress.<br /><br />The main Republican candidates to succeed Bunning are:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.randpaul2010.com/about/">Rand Paul</a>, 47, an opthamologist who is making his first run for public office. His father, Ron Paul, is a congressman from Texas, who has twice run unsuccessfully for president.<br /><br />Kentucky Secretary of State <a href="http://sos.ky.gov/secdesk/biography.htm">Trey Grayson</a>, 38. He has held his current office since 2004. Earlier, Grayson had worked in the private practice of law.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ky/kentucky_senate_republican_primary-1153.html">Polls</a> reported by <em>Real Clear Politics</em> show Paul well ahead of Grayson.<br /><br />Here is a <em>Weekly Standard</em> blog <a href="http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/trey-grayson-kentucky-senate-gop-primary">post</a> that describes how Republican heavyweights, both within and outside Kentucky, are lining up in this contest.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-37440902195124417722010-05-16T14:55:00.002-04:002010-05-16T15:05:06.193-04:00Senate -- Arkansas -- Republican PrimaryHaving described next Tuesday's <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/senate-arkansas-democratic-primary.html">Democratic primary</a>, here is how the Arkansas Republican primary shapes up:<br /><br />The leading Republican candidate for U.S. Senate is Congressman <a href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=B001236">John Boozman</a>, 59. He has served in the House since 2001. Boozman is trained as an optometrist, and worked in that field before entering Congress.<br /><br />Here is a <a href="http://arkansasnews.com/2010/05/06/poll-lincoln-leads-halter-boozman-leads-both-democrats/">report</a> on a poll showing Boozman well ahead of several Republican rivals. The only other candidates showing more than 10% support are:<br /><br />Former state Senator <a href="http://jimholt2010.com/about/">Jim Holt</a>, 45. After a military career, he was, in1996, ordained as a Southern Baptist minister. Holt subsequently served one term in each house of the state legislature. He lost the general election for this Senate seat, in 2004.<br /><br />State Senator <a href="http://www.senatorgilbertbaker.com/biography-senator-gilbert-baker">Gilbert Baker</a>, 53. He has been in the Arkansas Senate since 2001. Baker has also worked as a college teacher.<br /><br />It seems as though the only open question, with this crowded field, is whether Boozman will reach the 50% mark. If not, there will be a runoff on June 8.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-41861747858929267752010-05-13T17:10:00.000-04:002010-05-13T17:15:27.017-04:00Senate -- Arkansas -- Democratic PrimaryArkansas will hold a primary election next Tuesday, May 18. Democratic Senator <a href="http://bioguide.congress.gov/scripts/biodisplay.pl?index=L000035">Blanche Lincoln</a> is up for reelection.<br /><br />Lincoln, 49, is completing her second six-year term in the Senate. She served in the U.S. House from 1993 to 1997. Lincoln chairs the <a href="http://ag.senate.gov/site/">Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry</a>.<br /><br />Her main opponent in the primary is Lieutenant Governor <a href="http://ltgovernor.arkansas.gov/bills_bio.html">Bill Halter</a>, 49. He has held his current office since 2007. During the presidency of fellow Arkansan Bill Clinton, Halter worked in Washington in the Office of Management and Budget, and the Social Security Administration.<br /><br />Lincoln has a significant lead, in <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_democratic_primary-1418.html">polls</a> reported by <em>Real Clear Politics</em>.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-20973585898979361272010-05-12T11:25:00.000-04:002010-05-12T11:30:49.652-04:00No Leaving EarlyCoalition negotiations between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives produced <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8677933.stm">agreement</a> regarding some fundamental changes to the British electoral system.<br /><br />One of those changes is that Parliament should sit for a fixed term of five years, before the next general election. That will end the traditional practice, which I described <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2008/07/to-snap-or-not-to-snap.html">here</a> and <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/11/later-rather-than-sooner.html">here</a>, of allowing the prime minister to set the election date.<br /><br />The other method of cutting short the term of a Parliament has been the vote of no confidence. By a simple-majority vote, the House of Commons has been able to, in effect, fire the prime minister. Under the coalition agreement, that will still be allowed, but it will require a supermajority of 55%.<br /><br />A no-confidence motion could be blocked by 294 MPs. The Conservatives, with 306 seats (and possibly 307 after the delayed vote in one constituency), could defeat such a motion, unless (as if often the case for a governing party) their numbers are eroded over the next five years via by-election losses.<br /><br />In the short term, the effect will be to lock the two coalition parties into their deal, and not enable either of them to bring about the scenario that many had <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/05/shall-we-do-it-again.html">expected</a>, i.e., another general election within a year or so, to try to resolve the deadlock, and produce a parliamentary majority for one party or another.<br /><br />In the long run, it will probably change British politics in ways that are neither intended nor anticipated.<br /><br />Also, the two parties are committed to a referendum on adopting the Alternative Vote system for electing the House of Commons. That method is sometimes called Instant Runoff Voting, and I described it <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/06/frozen-instant-runoff-voting.html">here</a>, in an American context.<br /><br />While falling short of the Liberal Democrats' ultimate goal of <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2008/07/proportional-representation.html">proportional representation</a>, Alternative Vote might increase support for that party in future elections, and make coalition negotiations, such as those that have taken place over the last few days, commonplace in Britain.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-91617649362851914912010-05-12T09:20:00.000-04:002010-05-12T09:25:49.162-04:00The Dust SettlesAfter a wild day in British politics yesterday, the situation has become more clear by this morning. Major U.K. media outlets were live-blogging all day, and all sorts of contradictory stories were being posted. After all that, I'm not totally sure that all of the following is finally final, but here is how things look as of now:<br /><br />David Cameron, the Conservative Party leader, became prime minister Tuesday evening, several minutes after Gordon Brown resigned that office.<br /><br />Some hours after that, the Liberal Democrats <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8676579.stm">approved</a> their party's participation in a coalition government with the Conservatives. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is deputy prime minister.<br /><br />William Hague, 49 (an old man by the standards of this government), is foreign secretary. He has been a member of Parliament (MP) since 1989. Hague was elected leader of the Conservative Party in the wake of the party's landslide defeat in the 1997 general election. He held that position until 2001, when he resigned after leading the party into another landslide loss, in the 2001 general election.<br /><br />George Osborne, a 38-year-old Conservative, is chancellor of the exchequer. He was first elected to the House of Commons in 2001. Osborne became shadow chancellor when Cameron took over as party leader in 2005.<br /><br />The BBC has provided a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8675705.stm">summary</a> of the Cabinet appointments so far, including the names of four Liberal Democrats in the Cabinet.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-12759840973078620682010-05-11T16:00:00.000-04:002010-05-11T16:01:47.166-04:00New Prime Minister<a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2009/08/david-cameron.html">David Cameron</a> became prime minister of the U.K. this evening (London time). In contrast to a head-of-government transition in the U.S., which involves a huge outdoor ceremony, the British hand-over of power occurs in a private meeting with Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace, in which she invites him to form her government.<br /><br />British media are making much of the fact that, at the age of 43, Cameron is the youngest prime minister in 198 years. However, he is less than one year younger than Tony Blair was, when he had a similar meeting with The Queen, in 1997.<br /><br />An odd story is emerging. After Cameron's predecessor, Gordon Brown, had delayed his resignation for five days after the general election, once he decided to leave, he reportedly was in such a hurry, that he didn't confirm with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats that their coalition was in place, before he resigned. According to a <a href="http://timesonline.typepad.com/election10/">blog</a> on the website of <em>The Times</em>, Liberal Democrats were "hacked off" at Brown, for upsetting the timing of the coalition negotiations.<br /><br />There's still no official word on the shape of the coalition. There are several media reports that <a href="http://exploreps.blogspot.com/2010/04/nick-clegg.html">Nick Clegg</a>, leader of the Liberal Democrats, will be deputy prime minister. While that has been a somewhat meaningless title in single-party governments, I suspect it might carry more weight in a coalition government. For example, in Britain's World War II coalition government under Winston Churchill, Labour leader Clement Attlee, as deputy prime minister, was more of less in charge of domestic policy, while the prime minister was preoccupied with the war.<br /><br />The circumstances are different, now. But Cameron may need to allow Clegg to play a major role, in order to keep Clegg's party committed to the coalition.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-11775452967583123592010-05-11T14:25:00.000-04:002010-05-11T14:34:48.684-04:00It's OverBritish Prime Minister Gordon Brown emerged from 10 Downing Street a few minutes ago, and <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8675913.stm">announced</a> that he is headed to Buckingham Palace to tender his resignation to The Queen. Contrary to his statement yesterday of his intent to eventually resign as leader of the Labour Party, this resignation will take effect immediately.<br /><br />He is changing his plan regarding his role as leader of the party. Brown will also resign that position effective immediately.<br /><br />Conservative and Liberal Democrat leaders have been reported to still be engaged in a marathon meeting to hammer out the final details of their coalition government.<br /><br />I assume that Brown's statement means that those talks are completed. David Cameron, who will be prime minister in the coalition government, will need to follow closely on the heels of Brown to the Palace, because any delay would leave Britain without a prime minister.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5736748953868699846.post-67601417902415824112010-05-11T11:00:00.002-04:002010-05-11T11:25:41.290-04:00Shifting SandsAs London's afternoon goes by, media commentary from there has shifted once again, back to the notion that the Liberal Democrats will form a coalition government with the Conservatives.<br /><br />More and more senior Labour Party figures are publicly stating their opposition to a deal between their party, the Liberal Democrats, and nationalist parties in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.<br /><br />For one thing, they are alarmed by the proportional representation proposals that have been put on the table, in Labour-Liberal Democrat talks.<br /><br />At least one major Labour figure has <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/scotland/8674214.stm">stated</a> something that is rather obvious, that his party could not co-exist with Scottish Nationalists in a coalition government. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is a Scotsman, and his government, and that of his Labour predecessor Tony Blair, have been dominated by Scotsmen at the highest levels. It has been a high priority for them to head off the movement for an independent Scotland, which is spearheaded by the Scottish National Party (SNP). The coalition arithmetic doesn't work without the SNP's six members of Parliament (MPs).<br /><br /><em>The Times</em> <a href="http://timesonline.typepad.com/election10/">reports</a> that Liberal Democrat MPs will meet at 7:30 tonight (2:30 pm EDT), and speculates that they might at that time approve a coalition with the Conservatives.<br /><br />UPDATE: London media are now reporting that a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition looks like a sure thing, and that Brown's resignation as prime minister could happen as early as tonight. There is even a report that moving vans are assembling at the back door of 10 Downing Street.schiller1979http://www.blogger.com/profile/13960814043853910096noreply@blogger.com0