Over the past few days, I've read several media reports about the upcoming British general election that state that the Conservative Party (a.k.a. the Tories), and their leader David Cameron, are gaining momentum as election day approaches (day after tomorrow).
But the opinion polls don't show much movement. The Liberal Democrats made a major gain after the first of the three unprecedented televised debates between the party leaders. Since then, the polls have put the Conservatives in the low-to-mid 30s, (in terms of percentage of the overall vote) with Labour and the Liberal Democrats close together in the high 20s.
The BBC projects that, based on its "poll of polls", an average of the results of several surveys, the Conservatives will win 278 seats, which would be the largest total, but well short of the 326 required for an overall majority. That projection puts Labour at 261 seats, with 82 going to the Liberal Democrats.
The reports of pro-Tory momentum sound credible, so I won't be too surprised if the election produces a small Conservative majority. However, it still seems likely that they will win a plurality, but not a majority.
That would put Britain into uncharted waters. Countries such as Germany expect to enter into protracted coalition negotiations after a general election. Those talks can go on for weeks. The British, on the other hand, are used to voting on Thursday and, if they decide to throw out the governing party, seeing the new prime minister move into 10 Downing Street on Friday.
This time, instead of wrapping things up on Friday, the fun might be just beginning.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
How is Britain coming to resemble Canada?
The expectation is still that, when the U.K. votes in its general election on Thursday, no party will win an overall majority in the House of Commons.
That sort of outcome has become standard operating procedure in one of Britain's former New World colonies, Canada.
2000 saw the last Canadian general election in which a party (the Liberals) achieved an overall majority in the House of Commons. Four years later, the Liberals won a plurality of seats, and formed a minority government. Two subsequent general elections followed in quick succession, in 2006 and 2008, in an unsuccessful effort to break that impasse. The Conservatives have led a minority government since 2006.
As I see it, there are close parallels between the circumstances that created that situation in Canada, and those that have led to the expected deadlock in Britain. In each case, the sequence of events has been: 1) a third party makes a significant gain in seats, and 2) the main center-right party experiences a resurgence.
In Canada, the third party is the Bloc Quebecois, which I described in this post. Pro-independence Quebecers left the other parties, and formed their own party at the federal level. Siphoning off votes from the established parties, the Bloc made it more difficult for any party to win an overall majority.
In three elections between 1993 and 2000, that wasn't a problem. The center-right was split, so the Liberal Party could amass a majority, even with the loss of some Quebec seats. But, by 2004, the center-right had united under the banner of a new Conservative Party, and the Liberals lost their majority. Later, they fell from power, as the Conservatives overtook them, albeit short of a majority of their own. As of now, a Conservative minority government elected in 2008 continues to govern.
In the U.K., the ascendant third party are the Liberal Democrats. Formed in 1988, via a merger of the Liberal Party, a once-major party that had long since fallen into third place, with the Social Democrats, a centrist faction that had recently broken away from the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats made steady gains in subsequent general elections.
But, as was the case with the Canadian Liberals, the British Labour Party became so dominant during the 1990s, that they were able to put together large majorities, even while the Liberal Democrats were gaining seats of their own.
Now, the U.K. Conservatives are overcoming their post-Thatcher hangover, and achieving their best poll numbers in many years. However, those poll numbers point to, at best, a small overall majority, and, quite possibly, a plurality of seats that falls short of a majority. Further gains by the Liberal Democrats during the current campaign may well contribute to such a result.
If Thursday's British election plays out that way, the question will become: is the U.K. fated to experience a series of inconclusive general elections, as their friends across the ocean have done?
That sort of outcome has become standard operating procedure in one of Britain's former New World colonies, Canada.
2000 saw the last Canadian general election in which a party (the Liberals) achieved an overall majority in the House of Commons. Four years later, the Liberals won a plurality of seats, and formed a minority government. Two subsequent general elections followed in quick succession, in 2006 and 2008, in an unsuccessful effort to break that impasse. The Conservatives have led a minority government since 2006.
As I see it, there are close parallels between the circumstances that created that situation in Canada, and those that have led to the expected deadlock in Britain. In each case, the sequence of events has been: 1) a third party makes a significant gain in seats, and 2) the main center-right party experiences a resurgence.
In Canada, the third party is the Bloc Quebecois, which I described in this post. Pro-independence Quebecers left the other parties, and formed their own party at the federal level. Siphoning off votes from the established parties, the Bloc made it more difficult for any party to win an overall majority.
In three elections between 1993 and 2000, that wasn't a problem. The center-right was split, so the Liberal Party could amass a majority, even with the loss of some Quebec seats. But, by 2004, the center-right had united under the banner of a new Conservative Party, and the Liberals lost their majority. Later, they fell from power, as the Conservatives overtook them, albeit short of a majority of their own. As of now, a Conservative minority government elected in 2008 continues to govern.
In the U.K., the ascendant third party are the Liberal Democrats. Formed in 1988, via a merger of the Liberal Party, a once-major party that had long since fallen into third place, with the Social Democrats, a centrist faction that had recently broken away from the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats made steady gains in subsequent general elections.
But, as was the case with the Canadian Liberals, the British Labour Party became so dominant during the 1990s, that they were able to put together large majorities, even while the Liberal Democrats were gaining seats of their own.
Now, the U.K. Conservatives are overcoming their post-Thatcher hangover, and achieving their best poll numbers in many years. However, those poll numbers point to, at best, a small overall majority, and, quite possibly, a plurality of seats that falls short of a majority. Further gains by the Liberal Democrats during the current campaign may well contribute to such a result.
If Thursday's British election plays out that way, the question will become: is the U.K. fated to experience a series of inconclusive general elections, as their friends across the ocean have done?
Monday, May 3, 2010
Senate -- Indiana -- Democratic Primary
There isn't one.
Tomorrow is primary election day in Indiana but, after incumbent Democratic Senator Evan Bayh abandoned his reelection campaign, the filing deadline came and went, with no other Democrat qualifying to get on the primary ballot. Therefore, the Indiana Democrats' central committee will choose a nominee.
That group is virtually certain to select Congressman Brad Ellsworth, 51, who has represented an Evansville-area district in the U.S. House since 2007. In the Democrats' 2006 landslide, Ellsworth defeated six-term Republican incumbent John Hostettler, who is a candidate in the Republican primary to nominate Ellsworth's opponent in this Senate race.
Ellsworth had previously worked in law enforcement, having been a sheriff at the time of his election to Congress.
Republicans accused Bayh of timing his withdrawal announcement so as to guarantee that party insiders could choose the Democratic nominee, and avoid a primary.
Tomorrow is primary election day in Indiana but, after incumbent Democratic Senator Evan Bayh abandoned his reelection campaign, the filing deadline came and went, with no other Democrat qualifying to get on the primary ballot. Therefore, the Indiana Democrats' central committee will choose a nominee.
That group is virtually certain to select Congressman Brad Ellsworth, 51, who has represented an Evansville-area district in the U.S. House since 2007. In the Democrats' 2006 landslide, Ellsworth defeated six-term Republican incumbent John Hostettler, who is a candidate in the Republican primary to nominate Ellsworth's opponent in this Senate race.
Ellsworth had previously worked in law enforcement, having been a sheriff at the time of his election to Congress.
Republicans accused Bayh of timing his withdrawal announcement so as to guarantee that party insiders could choose the Democratic nominee, and avoid a primary.
Senate -- Indiana -- Republican Primary
There are three main candidates in tomorrow's Republican primary in the race to choose the successor to Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, who unexpectedly dropped out of the race in February:
Former Senator Dan Coats, 66. He was in the U.S. House from 1981 to 1989, and the Senate from 1989, when he was appointed to replace Dan Quayle, who had been elected vice president, until 1999. Coats was ambassador to Germany during George W. Bush's first presidential term. After that, he joined a Washington law firm.
Former Congressman John Hostettler, 48. His tenure in the House matched the Republicans' most recent period in the majority. Hostettler was first elected in the Republican landslide of 1994, and he was defeated for reelection when the Democrats regained control of the House, at the 2006 election. Trained as an engineer, he worked in that field before being elected to Congress. Since his defeat, he has worked in publishing.
State Senator Marlin Stutzman, 33. Stutzman, a farmer, has served in the state legislature since 2002, first in the House, and then, since 2009, in the Senate.
Here is a report from The News-Sentinel, a Fort Wayne newspaper, regarding a poll showing a comfortable lead for Coats.
Former Senator Dan Coats, 66. He was in the U.S. House from 1981 to 1989, and the Senate from 1989, when he was appointed to replace Dan Quayle, who had been elected vice president, until 1999. Coats was ambassador to Germany during George W. Bush's first presidential term. After that, he joined a Washington law firm.
Former Congressman John Hostettler, 48. His tenure in the House matched the Republicans' most recent period in the majority. Hostettler was first elected in the Republican landslide of 1994, and he was defeated for reelection when the Democrats regained control of the House, at the 2006 election. Trained as an engineer, he worked in that field before being elected to Congress. Since his defeat, he has worked in publishing.
State Senator Marlin Stutzman, 33. Stutzman, a farmer, has served in the state legislature since 2002, first in the House, and then, since 2009, in the Senate.
Here is a report from The News-Sentinel, a Fort Wayne newspaper, regarding a poll showing a comfortable lead for Coats.
Governor -- Ohio -- Republican Primary
Former Congressman John Kasich, Republican of Ohio, is unopposed for his party's gubernatorial nomination in tomorrow's primary.
Kasich, 57, represented a Columbus-area district in the U.S. House from 1983 to 2001. When his party took control of that body in 1995, he began a six-year stint as chairman of the House Budget Committee. He had previously served in the state Senate for four years.
After leaving Congress, Kasich worked for several years for the now-defunct investment bank Lehman Brothers. He has also appeared frequently on FOX News Channel.
Kasich, 57, represented a Columbus-area district in the U.S. House from 1983 to 2001. When his party took control of that body in 1995, he began a six-year stint as chairman of the House Budget Committee. He had previously served in the state Senate for four years.
After leaving Congress, Kasich worked for several years for the now-defunct investment bank Lehman Brothers. He has also appeared frequently on FOX News Channel.
Governor -- Ohio -- Democratic Primary
Governor Ted Strickland, Democrat of Ohio, is unopposed in his party's primary, scheduled for tomorrow, for a second term in that job.
Strickland, 68, has been governor since 2007. Earlier, he served 12 years in the U.S. House, representing a district in the southeastern corner of the state, bordering West Virginia. Before entering the political arena, Strickland worked as a psychologist.
Strickland, 68, has been governor since 2007. Earlier, he served 12 years in the U.S. House, representing a district in the southeastern corner of the state, bordering West Virginia. Before entering the political arena, Strickland worked as a psychologist.
Senate -- Ohio -- Democratic Primary
There is a two-way race in tomorrow's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio, to choose the opponent of Rob Portman, who is unopposed in the Republican primary. The Democratic candidates are:
Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, 53. She was elected to that office in 2006, after having worked in the private practice of law, and as a judge.
Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, 58. He has extensive experience in public office in Ohio, including 10 years in the state legislature, and one four-year term as state attorney general. Fisher has served in his current office since 2007. He twice unsuccessfully ran for governor.
Fisher has a substantial lead over Brunner in polls reported by Real Clear Politics.
Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, 53. She was elected to that office in 2006, after having worked in the private practice of law, and as a judge.
Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, 58. He has extensive experience in public office in Ohio, including 10 years in the state legislature, and one four-year term as state attorney general. Fisher has served in his current office since 2007. He twice unsuccessfully ran for governor.
Fisher has a substantial lead over Brunner in polls reported by Real Clear Politics.
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