Thursday, October 16, 2008

Foggy Bottom


In case you're wondering what that means (and, if so, God knows what your imagination is conjuring up), it's the Washington, DC, neighborhood in which the State Department's headquarters are located.

Who will be the next secretary of state?

Several names have been mentioned as potential Barack Obama appointees if, as current polls strongly indicate, he wins the presidential election.

Three of those names seem plausible to me, and one of them seems more plausible than the others. The three names are Richard Holbrooke, Bill Richardson and Hillary Clinton.

In recent years, presidents have rarely appointed elected officials to that position. In 1980, Jimmy Carter appointed Senator Edmund Muskie, after Cyrus Vance resigned to protest the attempted military action against Iran during the hostage crisis. At a time of political weakness, Carter correctly guessed that the Senate would not put up a fight about confirming one of their own. (That doesn't always work; the Senate rejected George H.W. Bush's nomination of Senator John Tower to be secretary of defense, in 1989.)

If Obama, as a newly-elected president has, as we currently expect, a large Democratic majority in the Senate, he probably won't need to worry about a confirmation battle.

Recent presidents have often chosen either academics, or people with Cabinet or sub-Cabinet experience in previous administrations.

Hillary Clinton might qualify in that latter category, in that her husband more-or-less gave the office of First Lady Cabinet rank in his administration. But her primary identity these days is as an elected politician.

Richardson has some diplomatic experience, including the position of permanent representative to the United Nations. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him get the nod.

One name that seems to make a lot of sense is Holbrooke.

Holbrooke, 67, was a career foreign service officer. He was a major foreign policy figure in the Clinton Administration, holding such positions as ambassador to Germany, assistant secretary of state, and permanent representative to the U.N. He is best known for his role in negotiating a peace agreement for Bosnia, at Dayton, Ohio, in 1995.

Holbrooke was left off a "working group" on national security that was assembled by the Obama campaign earlier this year. Commentators have been trying to read the tea leaves, to see what that means.

Retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel, Republican of Nebraska, has also been mentioned. I sometimes suspect Hagel is a darling of the media, whose name many like to throw around for president, vice president, secretary of state, or whatever. But stranger things have happened. As I wrote here, there is precedent for a president to name a member of the opposition party to a major Cabinet post.

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