Thursday, October 22, 2009

Hockey Moms, Wagers, etc.

Andrew Sullivan joins in the debate raging through the blogosphere on the question of whether Sarah Palin will run for president in 2012. He links to a post that describes a wager about the Hockey Mom's future plans, between writers on the 538 blog.

This ties into a post of mine back in June, when I noted that, when a president runs for a second term, there are always many candidates from the opposition party lining up to oppose the reelection effort. But things rarely work out well for the opposition nominee.

Tom Schaller's analysis, noting that it would be prudent for a young presidential prospect such as Palin to wait until President Obama is term-limited, makes sense to me. But ambitious politicians have not historically been willing to wait, so Palin will not be bucking a trend, if she jumps into the fray for 2012.

As I noted in that earlier post, some challengers have defeated incumbent presidents. But Franklin Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton are/were extraordinary politicians. Does Palin put herself into that category?

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