Wednesday, June 9, 2010

California Gubernatorial Primary Results

Meg Whitman, former CEO of eBay, won yesterday's Republican primary for governor of California. Whitman, 53, got 64% of the vote, to 26% for Steve Poizner, the state's insurance commissioner. As is the case with her ticket-mate, Carly Fiorina, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in California, this is Whitman's first run for public office.

Her general election opponent will be state Attorney General Jerry Brown, a former governor. Brown, 72, got 84% of the Democratic primary vote, against several minor candidates.

According to Real Clear Politics, polls show Brown ahead of Whitman by an average of 6.2%.

I wrote about the background of this race, here and here.

California Senate Primary Results

Two female former CEOs of major corporations won the major Republican primaries in California yesterday.

In the primary for U.S. Senate, Carly Fiorina, who formerly headed up Hewlett-Packard, easily won the Republican primary. She won 54% of the vote, while her closest challenger, former Congressman Tom Campbell, got only 24%. Fiorina, 55, is making her first run for public office. Those of us who are alumni of a certain college will note that "Carly" is short for "Carleton" (with the "e"; that makes all the difference.)

In the Democratic primary, Senator Barbara Boxer saw off token opposition, winning with 80% of the vote. Boxer, 69, has held the seat since 1993, having previously served in the U.S. House for 10 years.

Polls reported by Real Clear Politics show Boxer with a fair-to-middling lead over Fiorina.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Resignations and History

When did World War II end?

Of course, the history books tell us that May 8, 1945, was Victory in Europe (VE) Day. However, the war in Asia was still going on, and the end of the fighting can be dated from either August 15 of that year, when the Japanese announced their intent to surrender, or September 2, when the formal surrender ceremony was held.

Some would argue that the War didn't really end until German reunification, in 1990. I suppose, by the same token, an argument can be made that the true end of the War awaits a similar reunification on the Korean Peninsula. But, most would say that, by now, the War has been over for many years.

The War is a thing of the past, but its effects are still being felt in world politics. Two resignations of national leaders this week are both tied to World War II-related issues.

On Monday, the German head of state, President Horst Koehler, announced his immediate resignation. He had been strongly criticized for saying that:

A country of our size, with its focus on exports and thus reliance on foreign trade, must be aware that military deployments are necessary in an emergency to protect our interests, for example, when it comes to trade routes, for example, when it comes to preventing regional instabilities that could negatively influence our trade, jobs and incomes.

Everyone knows that protecting a country's economic interests is one of the primary reasons for maintaining armed forces. Politicians will softpedal that to some degree, preferring to emphasize, for example, the protection of human rights, as in the Kosovo War of 1999.

But, in most countries, it wouldn't be considered a scandal, if the head of state were to acknowledge the economic motive. Germany, however, is not most countries. Memories of German aggression in World War II make its own people, and those of other countries, sensitive about any hint of a renewal of an aggressive German foreign policy.

The Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany, but now governing the entire country) became a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1955. Under NATO's aegis, Germany has fought in places such as Kosovo and Afghanistan. Those wars have been clearly defensive in nature, and therefore are not seen to violate the taboo about Germany using military force to further its national interests.

It was in the context of the war in Afghanistan that Koehler made his remarks. Because that statement edged too close to taboo territory, he had to go.

The following day, in Japan, that country's head of government, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, announced his resignation, to be effective when his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has chosen a successor.

The main issue in Hatoyama's case is also an outgrowth of World War II. The U.S. retained control of some Japanese islands, including Okinawa, long after Japan's main islands again became self-governing. Finally, in 1972, those islands were returned to Japanese control. However, the U.S. has continued to maintain military bases on Japanese territory. Over the years, that American presence has become increasingly controversial with the Okinawan population.

As I described in this and other posts, the DPJ's victory in last year's general election was seen at the time as a major turning point in Japanese politics. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had maintained an almost-continuous hold on power for more than half a century, was finally booted out. Hatoyama and his party were to be the wave of the future. And one of their main policy changes was to be a recalibration of Japan's military alliance with the U.S.

Hatoyama recently reneged on a campaign promise to end the American military presence on Okinawa. Strategic concerns regarding China and North Korea militated against a weakening of the American alliance at this time. But, for residents of that island, the most important consideration was that it be "Not In My Back Yard" (NIMBY). In all parts of the world, NIMBY syndrome puts personal considerations ahead of national and international interests. As was the case with Germany's Koehler, Hatoyama mishandled a post-World War II issue, so he, too, had to go.

An episode of the 1970s British TV series Fawlty Towers involved innkeeper Basil Fawlty (played by John Cleese) playing host to a group of German tourists. The catch-phrase of that show was "don't mention the War." Even when German and Japanese leaders don't specifically mention the War, they still need to be careful what they say and do, regarding the consequences of World War II.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Oregon Primary Results

No surprises in yesterday's Oregon primary.

Senator Ron Wyden was easily renominated in the Democratic primary, receiving 91% of the vote. His Republican opponent will be Jim Huffman, a law professor, who got 42%, putting him well ahead of his opponents in a crowded Republican primary contest.

Apparently there is no poll more recent that a Rasmussen poll in February, with Wyden leading Huffman by 14 points.

The gubernatorial election will be between Democratic former Governor John Kitzhaber and Republican Chris Dudley. Kitzhaber trounced former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, 66% to 30%, in the Democratic primary. Dudley got 40% in the Republican primary, to 32% for runner-up Allen Alley.

The most recent poll reported by Real Clear Politics shows Kitzhaber and Dudley tied.

Arkansas Primary Results

Senator Blanche Lincoln, Democrat of Arkansas, fell short of renomination in yesterday's first round of voting in her party's primary. Lincoln led the field with 45% but, because she failed to reach 50%, there will be runoff between the senator and the number-two candidate, Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, on June 8. Halter received 43% of the vote.

The Republicans, on the other hand, do have a nominee. Congressman John Boozman easily won the G.O.P. primary, with 53%. The runner-up, Jim Holt, a former state senator, got only 17%.

Polls reported by Real Clear Politics show Boozman ahead of both potential Democratic candidates, by almost identical margins, over 19%.

The 538 blog ranks this Senate seat as the second most likely Democratic seat to go Republican (after North Dakota).

Kentucky Primary Results

Rand Paul, a physician making his first run for public office, won yesterday's Republican U.S. Senate primary in Kentucky. Paul received 59% of the vote, while his main opponent, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, got 35%.

The result is considered a victory for Tea Party upstarts against the Republican establishment. Grayson had been endorsed by senior Republicans, including the state's senior senator, Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader.

Rand Paul's father, Congressman Ron Paul, twice ran for president on a libertarian platform.

In a very close Democratic primary, Attorney General Jack Conway defeated Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo, by 44% to 43%.

Paul holds a narrow lead over Conway, according to polls reported by Real Clear Politics.

Pennsylvania Primary Results

When Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter switched from Republican to Democrat last year, he made no secret of the fact that his motive was to give himself an opportunity to win a sixth term in the Senate. Yesterday, his strategy backfired.

Congressman Joe Sestak defeated Specter in yesterday's Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat Specter has held since 1981. Sestak's margin of victory was 54% to 46%.

The Republican primary was, as expected, won by former Congressman Pat Toomey. I mistakenly stated here that Toomey was unopposed. It's a sign of how ineffectual the campaign of his primary opponent, Peg Luksik, was, that I, a registered Republican Pennsylvania voter, who therefore received several mailings and robo-calls from Republican candidates, was not aware of her candidacy. Luksik, a perennial candidate who has never won an election, garnered only 21% of the Republican vote.

Polls reported by Real Clear Politics show Toomey slightly ahead of Sestak.

Allegheny County Executive Don Onorato won Pennsylvania's Democratic primary for governor. That was predicted by the pre-election polls. Onorato won with 44% in a multi-candidate race. His closest challenger was Jack Wagner, the state's auditor general, who got 25%.

As expected, Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett easily won the Republican gubernatorial primary. Corbett got 72%, to 28% for Sam Rohrer, a state legislator.

Corbett has a comfortable lead over Onorato, according to polls reported by Real Clear Politics.