I'm following up on this post from last week, on the Senate special election in Massachusetts.
In The Washington Post, E.J. Dionne, who I'm sure would rather be writing about a landslide victory for Democrat Martha Coakley, acknowledges that the polls, and other indicators, cast significant doubt on the outcome.
Nate Silver, on the 538 blog, is also a supporter of Democrats, but he is only cautiously optimistic about Coakley's ability to defeat her Republican opponent Scott Brown.
One reason that I'm skeptical about talk of a Republican upset, is that I remember the regular 1994 election for this Senate seat. Mitt Romney was making his first run for public office and, at some point during the fall campaign, I started to hear excited talk about how Romney was about to overtake his opponent, Ted Kennedy. As it turned out, Kennedy won by a 17-point margin.
The current conversation about Brown reminds me of that 1994 situation. But, of course, this is a different year, and these are different candidates. That doesn't prove anything.
Also, this is a special election being conducted separately from the usual November election day. Turnout will be very low. So it depends on who turns out and who doesn't. Tune in a week from tomorrow.