Prediction: The Electoral College

I predict that Barack Obama will win the presidential election by a margin of 325 electoral votes, to 213 for John McCain.

There seem to be indications that marginal states are swinging back to McCain, but not enough to change the result. The best-case scenario for Obama has been somewhere in the neighborhood of 350 to 400 electoral votes. But as the time draws near, I'm putting my prediction at the bottom end of Obama's range. And who knows? I might even be right.

That breaks down by state as follows:

Obama (325):
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin

McCain (213):
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
West Virginia
Wyoming