Next Time

My late father was one of the most fanatical football watchers in America. A sometime sports journalist himself, he was critical of college football commentators who, all season long, would speculate about who would win the Heisman Trophy, the annual award to the best college football player.

I've come to share that opinion, and a year or two ago, I remember hearing a radio report speculating on the following year's winner, the day before that year's winner was to be announced. Well, now I'm going to do the political equivalent of that: commenting on the outlook for 2012 and beyond, in advance of election day 2008.

First, the scenario that the polls say is highly likely, an Obama victory.

In the post World War II-era, there has been an iron rule about an incumbent president's hope for reelection. If he is unopposed, or faces only token opposition, for his party's nomination, he wins the general election. Otherwise, he is thrown out. Phrasing it that way muddles cause and effect, but the correlation has held.

There's no way of knowing which way that will go. Of course, his strong supporters will tell you that an Obama victory would mark the second coming, with the lion lying down with the lamb, etc. And his staunch opponents are certain that he will fail utterly, and that the country will tire of having Bill Ayers in a position of influence in the White House, etc.

While it's impossible to say which issues will be important at any point in the future, it's safe to say that, for a while at least, he'll need to deal with economic issues. And I suspect that, as usual, the next president will get too much credit for economic good news, and too much blame for what might go wrong.

Who is waiting in the wings, if Obama stumbles? The first name that comes to mind, of course, is Hillary Clinton. She will be 65 in 2012, and that could be her last chance.

Some of the Democratic senators who were elected in 2006, and those who might win in 2008, are possibilities. Mark Warner of Virginia, who is expected to win a Senate seat this year, was considered presidential timber in the runup to 2008, but opted for the Senate race instead. Also, I wonder whether one of the Udall cousins in Colorado and New Mexico might try to accomplish what Morris Udall fell short of achieving in his 1976 run for the presidency.

Might Kay Hagan of North Carolina be seen as the next big thing, if she succeeds in unseating Elizabeth Dole in their Senate race this year?

Over the past 32 years, ex-governors have been in the White House for 28 years. But the current crop of large-state governors does not seem very promising. Rendell of Pennsylvania, Strickland of Ohio, and Blagojevich of Illinois, seem to lack both the ambition and the support within their party. And Granholm of Michigan is an immigrant, and therefore ineligible.

Former Gov. Eliot Spitzer of New York was seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, until his resignation in the wake of a prostitution scandal. His successor, David Paterson, is seen as merely a transitional figure.

On the other hand, if Obama is reelected, the question turns to 2016.

Joe Biden will be 74 in 2016. While the Republicans were willing to nominate a 72-year-old this year, Biden's age might disqualify him from being heir-apparent to Obama. And, after his two failed attempts at the Democratic presidential nomination, his party might not be all that interested anyway.

I think it's likely that the Democrats would then turn to a new generation of leaders, and we'll need to keep watch over the next 4-8 years, to see who emerges.

On the Republican side, all of the talk has been of Sarah Palin emerging as her party's front-runner for 2012.

Some of the also-rans this year might give it another try, such as Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

On the more moderate side, I'll be interested to follow the future of two Minnesota Republicans. Gov. Tim Pawlenty was on McCain's short list for running mate in 2008. He is not term-limited and has indicated a possible interest in becoming the first governor of his state to win a third term, when he's up for reelection in 2010. The other is Sen. Norm Coleman, if he can cut short the Al Franken decade.

What about the unlikely possibility that McCain wins?

The first question would be whether, at 76, he would run for reelection in 2012. His refusal to say now that he will limit himself to one term might be based on the experience of his hero Theodore Roosevelt. As I wrote here, Roosevelt (though in his case certainly not for age reasons) made such a pledge, and came to regret it.

But, if McCain wins this year, I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually bowed out of the 2012 campaign.

Either way, Sarah Palin would be well-placed to launch a candidacy to succeed McCain.