Not Number 2? OK, How About Number 1?

There is a phenomenon in American presidential politics that I find strange. That is the tendency for losing vice-presidential nominees to run for president at the subsequent election.

I suppose it's understandable, for multiple reasons:

1. Having run a national campaign, they have a name-recognition advantage over your average governor or senator.
2. The blame for the loss by their ticket falls mainly on the presidential candidate, so in many cases they don't come out of defeat with a negative image.
3. The candidate's appetite for high office is whetted, by having gone through all the rigors of a national campaign.
4. If their ticket lost at the last election then, by definition, there is an open race for their party's nomination the next time.

The best way I can think of to describe the sense in which I find this strange is to quote from Rocket J. Squirrel. When Bullwinkle J. Moose declared his intention to pull a rabbit out of his hat, Rocky replied, "But that trick never works!"

Well, almost never. During the 20th century, only one losing vice-presidential nominee went on to win the presidency. And win the presidency, and win the presidency, and win the presidency. Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Compare that to all the others who tried: Henry Cabot Lodge, Ed Muskie, Sarge Shriver, Bob Dole, Joe Lieberman and John Edwards. Plus two who won the vice-presidency, and whose ticket lost its reelection bid, and who went on to run for president: Walter Mondale and Dan Quayle.

Here is a blog post speculating that if, as expected, Sarah Palin loses the vice-presidency, she will be the Republican front-runner for 2012. Now the aforementioned Bullwinkle would need to watch out for Palin, who has been known to hunt moose. But can she make it work, and pull the presidency out of her hat?