Obama's Lead

I have recalculated the analysis of state polling data that I published on October 1. You will probably not be surprised to hear that it's not looking any better for John McCain.

According to polls reported in Real Clear Politics as of this morning, Obama leads in 28 states and the District of Columbia, for a total of 364 electoral votes:

California
Colorado
Connecticut
D.C.
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Wisconsin

That, of course, is well above the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

For McCain to reach 270, he will need to overcome Obama's poll lead in at least eight states. In those states, Obama leads by as much as 8.4 percentage points (in New Mexico).

The Republican's uphill climb is steeper than it was on October 1. The polls at that time indicated that he would need to erase Obama's lead in six states, those leads being no greater than three percentage points.

If Obama's momentum continues, and he passes McCain in more states, it seems as though Obama's best-case scenario is 401 electoral votes. That would mean adding the following to the above list of Obama states:

Georgia
Indiana
Montana
North Dakota
West Virginia