Electoral votes: 10
2004 result: Bush 55%, Kerry 44%
2000 result: Bush 51%, Gore 45%
Most recent Democratic win (1996): Clinton 47%, Dole 44%, Perot 8%
African American percentage: 3.8% (national average is 12.8%)
Link to polls in Real Clear Politics
In his home state, McCain leads in the polls, but not by a huge margin. In one poll, his lead was only 6%. It still seems unlikely that Obama could carry Arizona, but those poll numbers are interesting.