Electoral votes: 34
2004 result: Bush 61%, Kerry 38%
2000 result: Bush 59%, Gore 38%
Most recent Democratic win (1976): Carter 51%, Ford 48%
African American percentage: 11.9% (national average is 12.8%)
Link to polls in Real Clear Politics
Texas became the most important state in the Republican coalition, when California started voting Democratic in the 1990s.
McCain's lead in the polls, while not overwhelming, seems to point toward a Republican win in Texas. It seems as though the state is ready to continue voting Republican, even without a Bush on the ticket.
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