Electoral votes: 7
2004 result: Bush 49.9%, Kerry 49.2%
2000 result: Gore 48.5%, Bush 48.2%
African American percentage: 2.5% (national average is 12.8%)
Link to polls in Real Clear Politics
Iowa is one of the very few states that switched sides between 2000 and 2004. After very close results in both of those elections, Obama has a fairly significant lead in recent polls. Palin may well be popular with the largely socially conservative Republican base. But I suspect that Obama can do better than McCain in reaching moderate and independent Iowa voters.
Tentatively pencil this one into Obama's column.
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