Electoral votes: 31
2004 result: Kerry 58%, Bush 40%
2000 result: Gore 60%, Bush 35%
Most recent Republican win (1984): Reagan 54%, Mondale 46%
African American percentage: 17.4% (national average is 12.8%)
Link to polls in Real Clear Politics
Obama leads in those polls. One of them, which looks like an outlier, shows only a five-point Obama lead. But I think Obama has this one wrapped up.
The absence of the state's junior senator from the Democratic ticket, in either position, probably will not harm that ticket's chances.
New York has steadily been losing electoral votes, due to migration to the Sun Belt. It has gone down from 47 to 31 since the 1940s. But it still has the third-largest population (after California and Texas), and so is a significant anchor for the Democratic Party.
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