Electoral votes: 27
2004 result: Bush 52%, Kerry 47%
2000 result: Bush 48.85%, Gore 48.84%
Most recent Democratic win (1996): Clinton 48%, Dole 42%, Perot 9%
African American percentage: 15.8% (national average is 12.8%)
Link to polls in Real Clear Politics
Most of those polls show leads for McCain that, while not huge, are outside of the margin of error.
What can one say about presidential politics in Florida that hasn't already been said?
The conventional wisdom, of course, is that candidates of both parties curry favor with the Cuban exile community in Miami. This report from the Voice of America indicates that both candidates have taken quite a hard line on the issues of maintaining the trade embargo against Cuba and negotiating with the regime of the Castro brothers. But McCain found room to criticize Obama for not being quite as hard as he could be.
Florida looks good for McCain, but that is not necessarily, as Regis Philbin used to say, the final answer.