Sunday, September 14, 2008

Presidential Election -- Louisiana

Electoral votes: 9

2004 result: Bush 57%, Kerry 42%

2000 result: Bush 53%, Gore 45%

Most recent Democratic win (1996): Clinton 52%, Dole 40%, Perot 7%

African American percentage: 31.7% (national average is 12.8%)

Link to polls in Real Clear Politics

Louisiana has not veered as strongly toward the Republican Party in recent decades as other Deep South states have. However, McCain leads by large margins in the polls there.

There has been much speculation that the relocation of Louisiana residents as a result of Hurricane Katrina has decreased Democratic support, chiefly by reducing the proportion of the population that is African American. That might account for McCain's strong position in a state that I would otherwise expect to present an opportunity for Obama.

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