Friday, September 19, 2008

Presidential Election -- Montana

Electoral votes: 3

2004 result: Bush 59%, Kerry 39%

2000 result: Bush 58%, Gore 33%

Most recent Democratic win (1992): Clinton 38%, Bush 35%, Perot 26%

African American percentage: 0.4% (national average is 12.8%)

Link to polls in Real Clear Politics

McCain leads by an 11-point margin in the latest poll.

Bush carried Montana by wide margins, both times. But the state is less strongly Republican than its neighbors. And Obama's post-racial message might be expected to go over well, in a state that has never needed to deal with black/white issues.

On the other hand, it seems like the type of place where Sarah Palin might be well received.

McCain is doing well, but I don't think it can be called a done deal.

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