Electoral votes: 3
2004 result: Bush 59%, Kerry 39%
2000 result: Bush 58%, Gore 33%
Most recent Democratic win (1992): Clinton 38%, Bush 35%, Perot 26%
African American percentage: 0.4% (national average is 12.8%)
Link to polls in Real Clear Politics
McCain leads by an 11-point margin in the latest poll.
Bush carried Montana by wide margins, both times. But the state is less strongly Republican than its neighbors. And Obama's post-racial message might be expected to go over well, in a state that has never needed to deal with black/white issues.
On the other hand, it seems like the type of place where Sarah Palin might be well received.
McCain is doing well, but I don't think it can be called a done deal.