Thursday, September 18, 2008

Presidential Election -- Minnesota

Electoral votes: 10

2004 result: Kerry 51%, Bush 48%

2000 result: Gore 48%, Bush 46%

Most recent Republican win (1972): Nixon 52%, McGovern 46%

African American percentage: 4.5% (national average is 12.8%)

Link to polls in Real Clear Politics

Much is made of the fact that Minnesota currently has a streak of voting Democratic in more consecutive presidential elections than any other state (but not more than the District of Columbia). However, one needs to take into account the fact that there was a Minnesotan on the Democratic national ticket in five of the six elections between 1964 and 1984.

Obama leads in most polls, but not by large margins.

This is another state where Sarah Palin may well energize the Republican base, but might not help all that much among independents. The McCain ticket is not out of the running, but I suspect it will be difficult for the Republicans to prevail in Minnesota.

No comments: